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Analysis of February's Report

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Revisions to the ADP National Employment Report®

The February 2007 ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday March 7, 2007 is the first regularly released ADP Report to incorporate key methodological revisions, including: (1) a larger sample of payrolls; (2) improved procedures for seasonal adjustment; (3) better detection of outliers; and (4) additional detail on private nonfarm employment by select industry and by size of payroll. Additional details on the revisions are available at www.ADPemploymentreport.com.

Wednesday, March 7, 2007, 8:15 am EST

Private nonfarm employment grew a modest 57,000 from January to February of 2007 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report.

This month's ADP National Employment Report suggests employment in February grew somewhat less than the recent three month average increase in employment of 99,000, as estimated by the ADP National Employment Report.

Continuing recent trends, employment in the service-providing sector of the economy advanced 100,000, while employment in the goods-producing sector, which includes the construction industry, declined by 43,000. Employment in manufacturing industries fell by 29,000.

Other new detail in The ADP National Employment Report shows that employment at small and medium size businesses employing less than 500 workers grew 86,000, while employment at larger businesses declined 29,000. Over the last six months, small and medium size businesses accounted for most of the growth in private nonfarm employment.

For information on the construction and use of the ADP Report, please visit the methodology section of the ADP National Employment Report website at http://ADPemploymentreport.com/methodology.aspx.

 

DERIVED FROM ADP PAYROLL DATA

Table 1. Employees on nonfarm private payrolls by selected industry sector and size
(In thousands)
Industry/Size of Payroll Seasonally Adjusted
Sep.
2006		 Oct.
2006		 Nov.
2006		 Dec.
2006		 Jan.
2006		 Feb.
2006		 Change from:
Jan. 2006 - Feb. 2007p
Total nonfarm private.... 114,432 114,557 114,815 114,933 115,054 115,111 57
     
Small (1-49)................ 50,040 50,106 50,203 50,299 50,373 50,426 53
Medium (50-499)........ 45,000 45,053 45,166 45,191 45,243 45,276 33
Large (> 499)............. 19,392 19,398 19,446 19,443 19,438 19,409 -29
     
Goods-producing........... 22,492 22,473 22,491 22,473 22,457 22,414 -43
     
Small (1-49)................ 8.085 8,087 8,102 8,115 8,121 8,118 -3
Medium (50-499)........ 9,941 9,933 9,943 9,926 9,917 9,900 -17
Large (> 499)............. 4,466 4,453 4,446 4,432 4,419 4,396 -23
     
Service-producing......... 91,940 92,084 92,324 92,460 92,597 92,697 100
     
Small (1-49)................ 41,955 42,019 42,101 42,184 42,252 42,308 56
Medium (50-499)........ 35,059 35,120 35,223 35,265 35,326 35,376 50
Large (> 499)............. 14,926 14,945 15,000 15,011 15,019 15,013 -6
     
 Addendum:              
Manufacturing................... 14,133 14,118 14,117 14,095 14,072 14,043 -29
p = preliminary

The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report was derived from ADP data, and during the last six months of 2006, averaged 364,000 payrolls representing 22 million U.S. employees. This approximately represents the size of the matched sample used this month.




About the ADP National Employment Report ®

The ADP National Employment Report, sponsored by ADP®, was developed and is maintained by Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC. It is a measure of employment derived from an anonymous subset of 500,000 U.S. business clients. During the last six months of 2006, this subset represented approximately 364,000 U.S. business clients and approximately 22 million U.S. employees working in all private industrial sectors. The data is collected for pay periods that can be interpolated to include the week of the 12th of each month, and processed with statistical methodologies similar to those used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute employment from its monthly survey of establishments. Due to this processing, this subset is modified to make it indicative of national employment levels; therefore, the resulting employment changes computed for the ADP National Employment Report are not representative of changes in ADP's total base of U.S. business clients.

Empirical analysis performed by Macroeconomic Advisers suggests that the ADP National Employment Report can be used to develop a forecast of "true" employment that is superior to those resulting from consensus estimates, survey data, or other models of employment that do not incorporate the results of the ADP Report.

For a description of the underlying data and the statistical properties of the series, please see "ADP National Employment Report: Development Methodology" at http://ADPemploymentreport.com/methodology.aspx.

For a full schedule of future releases, please visit: www.ADPemploymentreport.com

Media contacts: ADP Public Relations: 973-974-7612
Macroeconomic Advisers: 314-721-4747

Technical information: 314-721-4747
www.ADPemploymentreport.com

The ADP National Employment Report is a trademark and service mark of ADP of North America, Inc.



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