Analysis of January's Report
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Total nonfarm private employment rose 152,000 from December 2006 to January 2007 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment ReportTM. The acceleration of employment in January suggests that the economy remained on solid footing heading into the new year, and that December's decline resulted from unusually large downward adjustments made at some firms to reflect the year-end reconciliation of employment records.
Estimates of total nonfarm private employment, seasonally adjusted
numbers in thousands, unless noted
|
| Category |
|
2007 |
| Aug |
Sept |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
| |
| ADP National Employment Report........... |
114037 |
114115 |
114243 |
114401 |
114361 |
114513 |
| change from previous month......................... |
107 |
78 |
128 |
158 |
-40 |
152 |
| percent change from previous month........... |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| |
| BLS Establishment Employment............ |
113584 |
113731 |
113795 |
p113939 |
p114089 |
na |
| change from previous month........................ |
180 |
147 |
64 |
p144 |
p150 |
na |
| percent change from previous month........... |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
p0.1 |
p0.1 |
na |
p=preliminary na=not available |
 |
|
|
Notice of Intent to Revise the ADP National Employment Report
On Thursday, February 22, 2007, Automatic Data Processing, Inc., in conjunction with Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC., will publish revisions to the ADP National Employment Report covering the period from January 2001 through January 2007. The revisions will reflect: (1) a larger sample of payrolls; (2) improved procedures for seasonal adjustment; (3) better detection of outliers; and (4) additional detail on private nonfarm employment by select industry and by size of payroll. The first regular release of the ADP National Employment Report to incorporate all these revisions will be published on Wednesday, March 7, 2007, for the estimate of private nonfarm employment during the month of February, 2007. Additional details on the revisions will be published on February 22, 2007, and will be available at www.ADPemploymentreport.com.
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About The ADP National Employment Report®
The ADP National Employment Report, sponsored by ADP®, was developed and is maintained by Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC. It is a measure of employment based on an anonymous subset of ADP payroll data of employees working in all 19 of the major North American Industrial Classification (NAICS) private industrial sectors. As of December, 2005, this subset was based upon approximately 225,000 establishments and 14 million employees. The data is collected for pay periods that include the week of the 12th of each month, and processed with statistical methodologies similar to those used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (the BLS) to compute employment from its monthly survey of establishments
For the period January 2001 - December 2005, the simple correlation between the monthly percent change in the ADP National Employment Report and the monthly percent change in nonfarm private establishment employment is roughly 0.90. Empirical analysis performed by Macroeconomic Advisers suggests that the ADP National Employment Report is a better advance indicator of the monthly change in establishment employment than available consensus forecasts, and that it anticipates revisions to the BLS measure.
For a description of the underlying data and the statistical properties of the series, please see the "ADP National Employment Report: Development Methodology" at http://adpemploymentreport.com/methodology.aspx.
For a full schedule of future releases, please visit: www.ADPemploymentreport.com
Media contacts: ADP Public Relations: 973-974-7612
Macroeconomic Advisers: 314-721-4747
Technical information: 314-721-4747
www.ADPemploymentreport.com
The ADP National Employment Report is a trademark and service mark of ADP of North America, Inc.
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