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Analysis of June's ReportPrint the PDF Version of the ADP Report Thursday, July 5, 2007, 8:15 am EDT Nonfarm private employment grew 150,000 from May to June of 2007 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. This month's ADP National Employment Report suggests an acceleration of employment. The three-month average change in nonfarm private employment has increased from 75,000 in April, to 86,000 in May, to 103,000 in June, according to the ADP Report. In June, employment in the service-providing sector of the economy grew a robust 163,000, while employment in the goods-producing sector declined 13,000. This marks the seventh consecutive monthly decline in the goods-producing sector, but the smallest since an increase of 18,000 in November of last year. Employment in the manufacturing sector also declined 13,000. Small- and medium-size businesses more than accounted for the increase in total employment in June. Gains in employment at these businesses were concentrated in the service-providing sector of the economy. However, employment among small-size businesses in the goods-producing sector also rose 7,000, in contrast to an overall decline in employment among goods-producing businesses of all sizes. For information on the construction and use of the ADP Report, please visit the methodology section of the ADP National Employment Report website at http://ADPemploymentreport.com/methodology.aspx.
The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report was derived from ADP data which, during the first six months of 2007, averaged approximately 383,000 payrolls representing nearly 23 million U.S. employees. This approximately represents the size of the matched sample used this month.
About the ADP National Employment Report ® The ADP National Employment Report, sponsored by ADP®, was developed and is maintained by Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC. It is a measure of employment derived from an anonymous subset of roughly 500,000 U.S. business clients. During the first six months of 2007, this subset represented approximately 383,000 U.S. business clients and nearly 23 million U.S. employees working in all private industrial sectors. The data is collected for pay periods that can be interpolated to include the week of the 12th of each month, and processed with statistical methodologies similar to those used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute employment from its monthly survey of establishments. Due to this processing, this subset is modified to make it indicative of national employment levels; therefore, the resulting employment changes computed for the ADP National Employment Report are not representative of changes in ADP's total base of U.S. business clients. Empirical analysis performed by Macroeconomic Advisers suggests that the ADP National Employment Report can be used to develop a forecast of "true" employment that is superior to those resulting from consensus estimates, survey data, or other models of employment that do not incorporate the results of the ADP Report. For a description of the underlying data and the statistical properties of the series, please see "ADP National Employment Report: Development Methodology" at http://ADPemploymentreport.com/methodology.aspx.
For a full schedule of future releases, please visit: www.ADPemploymentreport.com Click to view this month's press release |
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