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Analysis of March's Report
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Wednesday, April 4, 2007, 8:15 am EDT
Private nonfarm employment grew 106,000 from February to March of 2007 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report.
This month's ADP National Employment Report suggests employment in March grew in line with the recent three month average increase in employment of 101,000, as estimated by the ADP National Employment Report.
Continuing recent trends, employment in the service-providing sector of the economy advanced 128,000, while employment in the goods-producing sector, which includes the construction industry, declined by 22,000. Employment in manufacturing industries fell by 15,000.
Other detail in The ADP National Employment Report shows that employment at small- and medium-size businesses employing less than 500 workers grew 124,000, while employment at larger businesses declined 18,000. Over the last six months, small- and medium-size businesses accounted for most of the growth in private nonfarm employment.
For information on the construction and use of the ADP Report, please visit the methodology section of the ADP National Employment Report website at http://ADPemploymentreport.com/methodology.aspx.
DERIVED FROM ADP PAYROLL DATA
Table 1. Employees on nonfarm private payrolls by selected industry sector and size
(In thousands) |
| Industry/Size of Payroll |
Seasonally Adjusted |
Oct.
2006 |
Nov.
2006 |
Dec.
2006 |
Jan.
2007 |
Feb.
2006 |
Mar.
2007p |
Change from:
Feb. 2007 - Mar. 2007p |
| Total nonfarm private.... |
114,557 |
114,815 |
114,933 |
115,054 |
115,119 |
115,225 |
106 |
| |
|
|
| Small (1-49)................ |
50,106 |
50,203 |
50,299 |
50,373 |
50,425 |
50,506 |
81 |
| Medium (50-499)........ |
45,053 |
45,166 |
45,191 |
45,243 |
45,276 |
45,319 |
43 |
| Large (> 499)............. |
19,398 |
19,446 |
19,443 |
19,438 |
19,418 |
19,400 |
-18 |
| |
|
|
| Goods-producing........... |
22,473 |
22,491 |
22,473 |
22,457 |
22,416 |
22,394 |
-22 |
| |
|
|
| Small (1-49)................ |
8,087 |
8,102 |
8,115 |
8,121 |
8,117 |
8,123 |
6 |
| Medium (50-499)........ |
9,933 |
9,943 |
9,926 |
9,917 |
9,901 |
9,884 |
-17 |
| Large (> 499)............. |
4,453 |
4,446 |
4,432 |
4,419 |
4,398 |
4,387 |
-11 |
| |
|
|
| Service-providing......... |
92,084 |
92,324 |
92,460 |
92,597 |
92,703 |
92,831 |
128 |
| |
|
|
| Small (1-49)................ |
42,019 |
42,101 |
42,184 |
42,252 |
42,308 |
42,383 |
75 |
| Medium (50-499)........ |
35,120 |
35,223 |
35,265 |
35,326 |
35,375 |
35,435 |
60 |
| Large (> 499)............. |
14,945 |
15,000 |
15,011 |
15,019 |
15,020 |
15,013 |
-7 |
| |
|
|
| Addendum: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Manufacturing................... |
14,118 |
14,117 |
14,095 |
14,072 |
14,044 |
14,029 |
-15 |
p = preliminary
The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report was derived from ADP data which, during the last six months of 2006, averaged 364,000 payrolls representing 22 million U.S. employees. This approximately represents the size of the matched sample used this month. |
About the ADP National Employment Report ®
The ADP National Employment Report, sponsored by ADP®, was developed and is maintained by Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC. It is a measure of employment derived from an anonymous subset of roughly 500,000 U.S. business clients. During the last six months of 2006, this subset represented approximately 364,000 U.S. business clients and approximately 22 million U.S. employees working in all private industrial sectors. The data is collected for pay periods that can be interpolated to include the week of the 12th of each month, and processed with statistical methodologies similar to those used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute employment from its monthly survey of establishments. Due to this processing, this subset is modified to make it indicative of national employment levels; therefore, the resulting employment changes computed for the ADP National Employment Report are not representative of changes in ADP's total base of U.S. business clients.
Empirical analysis performed by Macroeconomic Advisers suggests that the ADP National Employment Report can be used to develop a forecast of "true" employment that is superior to those resulting from consensus estimates, survey data, or other models of employment that do not incorporate the results of the ADP Report.
For a description of the underlying data and the statistical properties of the series, please see "ADP National Employment Report: Development Methodology" at http://ADPemploymentreport.com/methodology.aspx.
For a full schedule of future releases, please visit: www.ADPemploymentreport.com
Media contacts: ADP Public Relations: 973-974-7612
Macroeconomic Advisers: 314-721-4747
Technical information: 314-721-4747
www.ADPemploymentreport.com
The ADP National Employment Report is a trademark and service mark of ADP of North America, Inc.
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