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Analysis of March's Report

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Wednesday, April 4, 2007, 8:15 am EDT

Private nonfarm employment grew 106,000 from February to March of 2007 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report.

This month's ADP National Employment Report suggests employment in March grew in line with the recent three month average increase in employment of 101,000, as estimated by the ADP National Employment Report.

Continuing recent trends, employment in the service-providing sector of the economy advanced 128,000, while employment in the goods-producing sector, which includes the construction industry, declined by 22,000. Employment in manufacturing industries fell by 15,000.

Other detail in The ADP National Employment Report shows that employment at small- and medium-size businesses employing less than 500 workers grew 124,000, while employment at larger businesses declined 18,000. Over the last six months, small- and medium-size businesses accounted for most of the growth in private nonfarm employment.

For information on the construction and use of the ADP Report, please visit the methodology section of the ADP National Employment Report website at http://ADPemploymentreport.com/methodology.aspx.

 

DERIVED FROM ADP PAYROLL DATA

Table 1. Employees on nonfarm private payrolls by selected industry sector and size
(In thousands)
Industry/Size of Payroll Seasonally Adjusted
Oct.
2006		 Nov.
2006		 Dec.
2006		 Jan.
2007		 Feb.
2006		 Mar.
2007p		 Change from:
Feb. 2007 - Mar. 2007p
Total nonfarm private.... 114,557 114,815 114,933 115,054 115,119 115,225 106
     
Small (1-49)................ 50,106 50,203 50,299 50,373 50,425 50,506 81
Medium (50-499)........ 45,053 45,166 45,191 45,243 45,276 45,319 43
Large (> 499)............. 19,398 19,446 19,443 19,438 19,418 19,400 -18
     
Goods-producing........... 22,473 22,491 22,473 22,457 22,416 22,394 -22
     
Small (1-49)................ 8,087 8,102 8,115 8,121 8,117 8,123 6
Medium (50-499)........ 9,933 9,943 9,926 9,917 9,901 9,884 -17
Large (> 499)............. 4,453 4,446 4,432 4,419 4,398 4,387 -11
     
Service-providing......... 92,084 92,324 92,460 92,597 92,703 92,831 128
     
Small (1-49)................ 42,019 42,101 42,184 42,252 42,308 42,383 75
Medium (50-499)........ 35,120 35,223 35,265 35,326 35,375 35,435 60
Large (> 499)............. 14,945 15,000 15,011 15,019 15,020 15,013 -7
     
 Addendum:              
Manufacturing................... 14,118 14,117 14,095 14,072 14,044 14,029 -15
p = preliminary

The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report was derived from ADP data which, during the last six months of 2006, averaged 364,000 payrolls representing 22 million U.S. employees. This approximately represents the size of the matched sample used this month.




About the ADP National Employment Report ®

The ADP National Employment Report, sponsored by ADP®, was developed and is maintained by Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC. It is a measure of employment derived from an anonymous subset of roughly 500,000 U.S. business clients. During the last six months of 2006, this subset represented approximately 364,000 U.S. business clients and approximately 22 million U.S. employees working in all private industrial sectors. The data is collected for pay periods that can be interpolated to include the week of the 12th of each month, and processed with statistical methodologies similar to those used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute employment from its monthly survey of establishments. Due to this processing, this subset is modified to make it indicative of national employment levels; therefore, the resulting employment changes computed for the ADP National Employment Report are not representative of changes in ADP's total base of U.S. business clients.

Empirical analysis performed by Macroeconomic Advisers suggests that the ADP National Employment Report can be used to develop a forecast of "true" employment that is superior to those resulting from consensus estimates, survey data, or other models of employment that do not incorporate the results of the ADP Report.

For a description of the underlying data and the statistical properties of the series, please see "ADP National Employment Report: Development Methodology" at http://ADPemploymentreport.com/methodology.aspx.

For a full schedule of future releases, please visit: www.ADPemploymentreport.com

Media contacts: ADP Public Relations: 973-974-7612
Macroeconomic Advisers: 314-721-4747

Technical information: 314-721-4747
www.ADPemploymentreport.com

The ADP National Employment Report is a trademark and service mark of ADP of North America, Inc.



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