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Analysis of May's Report

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007, 8:15 am EDT

Private nonfarm employment grew 97,000 from April to May of 2007 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report.®

This month's ADP National Employment Report suggests monthly gains of employment in the private nonfarm business sector averaged 85,000 over the last three months, as estimated by the ADP National Employment Report.

Continuing recent trends, employment grew 120,000 in the service-providing sectors of the economy, while employment fell 23,000 in the goods-producing sectors, which marks the sixth consecutive monthly decline. This includes a decline of 10,000 in the manufacturing sector.

Also continuing recent trends, small and medium-sized businesses accounted for most of the rise in employment in May, with gains of 58,000 and 31,000 respectively. May's growth was further aided by an employment increase of 8,000 at large businesses, the first monthly gain since November 2006.

For information on the construction and use of the ADP Report, please visit the methodology section of the ADP National Employment Report website at http://ADPemploymentreport.com/methodology.aspx.

Due to the Independence Day holiday, the June 2007 ADP National Employment Report will be released on Thursday, July 5, 2007 at 8:15 a.m. EDT.

 

DERIVED FROM ADP PAYROLL DATA

Table 1. Employees on nonfarm private payrolls by selected industry sector and size
(In thousands)
Industry/Size of Payroll Seasonally Adjusted
Dec.
2006		 Jan.
2006		 Feb.
2007		 Mar.
2006		 Apr.
2007		 May
2007p		 Change from:
Apr. 2007 - May 2007p
Total nonfarm private.... 114,933 115,054 115,119 115,217 115,278 115,375 97
     
Small (1-49)................ 50,299 50,373 50,425 50,500 50,541 50,599 58
Medium (50-499)........ 45,191 45,243 45,276 45,314 45,341 45,372 31
Large (> 499)............. 19,443 19,438 19,418 19,403 19,396 19,404 8
     
Goods-producing........... 22,473 22,457 22,416 22,390 22,347 22,324 -23
     
Small (1-49)................ 8,115 8,121 8,117 8,120 8,108 8,105 -3
Medium (50-499)........ 9,926 9,917 9,901 9,883 9,865 9,849 -16
Large (> 499)............. 4,432 4,419 4,398 4,387 4,374 4,370 -4
     
Service-providing......... 92,460 92,597 92,703 92,827 92,931 93,051 120
     
Small (1-49)................ 42,184 42,252 42,308 42,380 42,433 42,494 61
Medium (50-499)........ 35,265 35,325 35,375 35,431 35,476 35,523 47
Large (> 499)............. 15,011 15,019 15,020 15,016 15,022 15,034 12
     
 Addendum:              
Manufacturing................... 14,095 14,072 14,044 14,028 14,009 13,999 -10
p = preliminary

The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report was derived from ADP data which, during the last six months of 2006, averaged 364,000 payrolls representing 22 million U.S. employees. This approximately represents the size of the matched sample used this month.




About the ADP National Employment Report ®

The ADP National Employment Report, sponsored by ADP®, was developed and is maintained by Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC. It is a measure of employment derived from an anonymous subset of roughly 500,000 U.S. business clients. During the last six months of 2006, this subset represented approximately 364,000 U.S. business clients and approximately 22 million U.S. employees working in all private industrial sectors. The data is collected for pay periods that can be interpolated to include the week of the 12th of each month, and processed with statistical methodologies similar to those used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute employment from its monthly survey of establishments. Due to this processing, this subset is modified to make it indicative of national employment levels; therefore, the resulting employment changes computed for the ADP National Employment Report are not representative of changes in ADP's total base of U.S. business clients.

Empirical analysis performed by Macroeconomic Advisers suggests that the ADP National Employment Report can be used to develop a forecast of "true" employment that is superior to those resulting from consensus estimates, survey data, or other models of employment that do not incorporate the results of the ADP Report.

For a description of the underlying data and the statistical properties of the series, please see "ADP National Employment Report: Development Methodology" at http://ADPemploymentreport.com/methodology.aspx.

For a full schedule of future releases, please visit: www.ADPemploymentreport.com

Media contacts: ADP Public Relations: 973-974-7612
Macroeconomic Advisers: 314-721-4747

Technical information: 314-721-4747
www.ADPemploymentreport.com

The ADP National Employment Report is a trademark and service mark of ADP of North America, Inc.



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